Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
Key lending rate (repo) raised by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent; 2nd increase in 5 weeks
Hikes benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent Cuts growth projection for this fiscal to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent estimated in September Inflation to come down below 6 per cent in March quarter, to average 6.7 per cent this fiscal
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday upgraded ratings of five companies of the Tata group including Tata Steel, Tata Motors and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) reflecting its reassessment of the ongoing influence and the potential for 'extraordinary financial support' from the parent, Tata Sons. Under the revised exercise, S&P Global said ratings on Tata Steel Ltd and its 100 per cent-owned financing subsidiary ABJA Investment Co Pte Ltd have been upgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BB' with stable outlook. Similarly, Tata Motors Ltd and its wholly-owned arm TML Holdings Pte Ltd have been upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B' ratings with stable outlook.
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
Commodity investments can help you diversify your portfolio in asset classes other than equity and debt, says Dwaipayan Bose.
Despite a firm improvement in the operational metrics of new-age companies during the January-March quarter (Q4FY23), analysts remain cautiously optimistic about their outlook. This is because the shares of these firms are still not risk free, as per analysts, given the companies are yet to make profits. Kranthi Bathini, director-equity strategy at WealthMills Securities says that while the sentiment around these stocks, which includes Paytm and Zomato, has turned positive, it remains to be seen how soon these firms turn profitable and improve margins.
This is a good opportunity for long-term investors to pick quality small and midcap stocks at reasonable valuations.
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
As many as 267 of 453 companies from the BSE500 index are trading above their consensus price targets, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all companies in the BSE500 index are tracked by analysts.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty ticked higher for the ninth straight session on Thursday, buoyed by fag-end buying in banking, financial and realty stocks amid encouraging domestic retail inflation data. Weak trends in IT counters and fall in the overnight US equity markets triggered by fresh concerns over recession, however, put a check on market's uptrend. In a largely subdued session, the 30-share BSE Sensex went up marginally by 38.23 points or 0.06 per cent to settle at 60,431.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Moody's on Friday slashed India's GDP growth projections for 2022 to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent earlier as the global slowdown and rising domestic interest rates will dampen economic momentum. This is the second time that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates. In September, it had cut projections for the current year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent estimated in May. "For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent.
Adani group firm Adani Ports & SEZ paid Rs 1,500 crore loan and promised to repay more as the embattled conglomerate mapped a comeback strategy after a sellout triggered by a damning report by US-based Hindenburg Research. Adani Ports and SEZ paid SBI Mutual Funds' due amount of Rs 1,500 crore on Monday and will also pay another Rs 1,000 crore of commercial papers due in March (as per the payment scheme), a company spokesperson said. "This part prepayment is from the existing cash balance and funds generated from the business operations," the spokesperson said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
Prospective buyers must make a well-considered decision regarding whether this is the right time to buy a house, particularly with home loan rates at near-peak levels, and the risk of job losses looming in many sectors.
Rebalance your portfolio in case it has become overweight on equities vis-a-vis your strategic asset allocation.
10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The sharp rally in the markets thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24) has left analysts struggling to find investment-worthy themes. The S&P BSE Sensex has surged nearly 7 per cent thus far in FY24 and hit a fresh 52-week high of 63,601.71 levels on June 22, mostly led by foreign institutional (FII) flows. "The Indian market has seen a broad rally in the past few months but headline indices have seen more modest performance. "We are not very clear about the reasons for the rally and the divergent performance and struggle to find ideas in the consumption, investment and outsourcing sectors after the sharp run-up in several of our favored sectors and stocks in the past two months," wrote Sanjeev Prasad, co-head, Kotak Institutional Equities, in a recent co-authored note with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa.
Notwithstanding lower growth rates recorded in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), which spanned from April to June, footwear stocks have seen some gains in the past two trading sessions. Bata India saw an increase of approximately 5 per cent, driven by positive expectations surrounding a potential tie-up in the sports/athleisure segment. This development is viewed favourably due to the segment's higher growth rates.
Riding on strong June-quarter numbers and positive brokerage outlook, the stock of retail major Trent hit a fresh all-time high on Monday (August 14). The stock has gained 14 per cent in five trading sessions. Continuing the trend of strong revenue growth over the last few quarters, the company posted 53.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in top line to Rs 2,536 crore in the June quarter (first quarter of financial year 2023-24 or Q1FY24).
India's second largest software services firm Infosys on Monday said it will announce its financial results for the September quarter on October 13. "A meeting of the Board of Directors of the company will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday, October 12 and 13, 2021...to approve and take on record the audited consolidated financial results of the company and its subsidiaries as per Indian Accounting Standards (INDAS) for the quarter and half year ending September 30, 2021," a regulatory filing said.
It was August 2007. Tata Steel was turning 100. Jamshedpur, its hometown, had an air of celebration. The line-up for the special event included the launch of Air Deccan's commercial flight connecting Kolkata and Jamshedpur, and release of Russi Lala's new book, Romance of Tata Steel. There was also the screening of The Spirit of Steel, a 20-minute documentary directed by Zafar Hai showcasing Tata Steel's legacy, and a corporate anthem penned by Javed Akhtar and composed by Shankar, Ehsaan and Loy.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Friday after two days of fall, helped by buying in metal, telecom and auto stocks amid a firm trend in global markets. Automakers led by Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai, Mahindra & Mahindra reporting robust wholesales of passenger vehicles and GST collections crossing Rs 1.50 lakh crore for the third straight month in May also added to the optimism. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 118.57 points or 0.19 per cent to settle at 62,547.11.
In the same quarter a year before, most of them had reported a dismal performance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) by 80 basis points to 7.4 per cent, citing less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening by the central bank. In its update to the April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that though a global recession in 2022 was ruled out with a growth estimate of 3.2 per cent, the balance of risks was squarely to the downside, driven by a wide range of factors that could adversely affect the global economic performance. "The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.
